How does one thief catch another?

Newspapers in Canada reported a few days ago that the RCMP had uncovered an identity-theft ring in Surrey, BC. Hundreds of stolen credit cards, licenses, records and pieces of mail were recovered, as well as Canada Post uniforms and Canada Post mailbox keys. Apparently, this ring is not a garden variety.

"While it is two weeks since the search warrant was executed..., we've got a long road ahead of us to try and figure out what is taking place," said Sergeant Roger Morrow of the Surrey RCMP.

--The Globe and Mail, February 29, 2008

How did these thieves amass such a quantity of stolen material? Did they steal all these many items themselves or did they buy them from other thieves? How did they come by these Canada Post uniforms? What did they intend to do with all these stolen goods? Use them themselves? Or sell them to other thieves? How in general does this particular group of thieves operate?

Laypeople reading this news item are not likely to be able to answer these questions and others like them. They may have guesses and suspicions but these will remain just guesses and suspicions--until they find out more in later news reports.

The RCMP may have the answers to some of these questions but, as they themselves admit, there is a lot they do not yet know.

Now suppose we are able to get hold of a thief who at one time was in the same line of business, who is willing to talk. Such a person is likely to have a better idea what the answers to our questions are. More particularly, he will be able to give us a general idea how groups like the one caught operate. Now general ideas of this sort are valuable when we are playing Sherlock Holmes: if we have a general idea, we know what details / clues to look for.

Will our source the former thief be right on every point?

Not necessarily since where this particular case is concerned he is as much an outsider as we are. Indeed, he could even be wrong about the general idea governing the way this group works. Things might have changed; this group could be cleverer than all their predeccessors!

Einstein says, God does not play dice. He is wrong in this particular case. In this particular case God is cleverer than Einstein!

Our source the former thief could be wrong on the general idea governing the way the Surrey ring works. Suppose he is in fact wrong; suppose the RCMP cannot find the clues this wrong general idea would lead us to find. So we go back to our source the former thief and this is what he says to us: 'I am sorry you did not find the clues you were looking for. I had warned you about this. Things could change, I said. In fact, I was toying with a new idea just before I left the business.' And he tells us his New Idea.

Could the Surrey ring be following the same New Idea? They might or they might not. But if they were not, we could go back to our source the former thief to see if he has any more new ideas. You never know, one day one of his new ideas might work!

Set a thief to catch a thief. Just to be safe, set an inventive thief, a thief that has new ideas when old ones have been found not to work.

(See also Yes Sherlock Holmes is a genius!)