The Right Direction Catechism

In the last post I presented readers with the following cryptogram:

SBR SBCTU DBCKERVS FCGG WTTCXR SFH FRRJD YTHE SHUWI

This cryptogram contains many clues, for example: SB in the first two words, GG in the fourth, THE in the second last (by 'clues' here I mean both genuine and false). Now these are clues we can see right from the beginning. If they are genuine they help us solve the cipher; if they are false they waste our time.

Suppose we follow up on some of these clues and have succeeded in fathoming their meaning (through trial and error). As a result, we are able to advance--that is, are able to decipher parts of the message. Now when this happens sometimes we see things which we did not see at the beginning of the investigation. We see, for example, a three-letter word the first two letters of which are TW, or a five-letter word beginning with WEE.

What are these?

They are NEW CLUES! clues that were not there at the beginning.

What do people say when they see new clues appearing this way?

They frequently say: we must be moving in the right direction!

What do they mean ... 'the right direction'?

They mean, what they have done so far, including their readings of the old clues must be largely right.

Why largely right?

This is easy to answer. If the old clues had been wrongly interpreted, the wrong interpretations could not come together to produce new clues! Notice that the new clues result from applying the interpretations of old clues to the cryptogram. How do we get to have TW at the beginning of a three-letter word? How else if it is not due to some old clues telling us where the Ts and Ws are. Clues are the characteristics of the hidden structure. A clue wrongly interpreted ascribes to the hidden structure a characteristic it does not possess. It is impossible for wrong characteristics to lead to right ones: a crocodile-head cannot suggest a horse-leg.

When we play Sherlock Holmes we are overjoyed, we are delighted, we are jubilant, when old clues lead to new ones. The appearance of new clues in this way tells us we are moving in the right direction.

The Right Direction Catechism:
How do you know when you are moving in the right direction?

When new clues appear.